Posts Tagged ‘innumeracy’

Press Idiocy Forges Bipartisan Consensus

Sunday, August 17th, 2008

Sort of….

Tom Maguire has a few justified chuckles at the expense of some tested and ready practitioners of the august profession of journalism innumerate hacks at the Grey Lady. Clearly, the fourth estate would be better off if its members were required to undergo some basic quantitative training — not even necessarily anything involving actual computation or problem-solving, just enough to get a grasp of basic concepts — and the whole nation might be better off as a result as well. (At the very least, it would not be possible — to paraphrase a former Dean of Admissions at Yale — to shoot every reporter in the country, recruit pajamas-wearers to fill every, um, cancelled position, shoot all of them, and then recruit a third string journalistic corps with scant if any diminishing of the substantive quality of reporting.) That said, it’s sort of cute that Maguire thinks business school credentials would stand our press in markedly better stead. Sure, there are exceptional B-school grads; there are also exceptional J-school grads. And really now — has he met many Harvard MBAs? They’re supposed to be the best of the lot, and…let’s leave it at that. (more…)

Hawk Denies 2+2=4

Sunday, August 17th, 2008

Christopher Hitchens wants to know, in re: the 79 billion dollars of petrol-fueled surplus funds the Iraqi government is expected to accrue by year’s end, if “we [may] take a moment to apologize to Paul Wolfowitz? Of all the many slanders hurled at this advocate for Iraq’s liberation, probably none was more gleefully bandied about than his congressional testimony that Iraq’s recovery from decades of war and fascism could be self-financing.” Well, before we decide whether we owe Wolfowitz an apology, it might be helpful to take account of what Wolfowitz actually said. Wolfowitz’ 2003 statement to Congress on the eve of the invasion didn’t refer to “Iraq’s recovery from decades of war and fascism” — and note the classic Hitchens gambit of putting his own highly tendentious characterization of an event into other people’s mouths, the better to stack the deck rhetorically in favor of the moral blackmail* sure to come within a few paragraphs — but it did include a handy timeline and some dollar estimates: (more…)

More Vampire Children’s Television Workshop

Thursday, August 14th, 2008

Oh, I’m not done with the Commentards yet. Here’s what Sam Munson highlighted as the Comment(ard) of the Day: (more…)

Vampire Children’s Television Workshop

Thursday, August 14th, 2008

The worst blogger on earth, writing for the worst site on the world wide web (including all the porn), demonstrates the nonideological idiocy undergirding her entire output quite apart from her laughably slavish partisanship, dishonesty, and stupidity:

Rove’s analysis [of state-by-state contests] should put much of partisan punditry into proper perspectiveational polls are fun but largely irrelevant. Remember Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani’s double-digit leads months before the first votes were cast?

Jesus H. Christ. How many confusions is it possible to pack into two short sentences? (more…)

Vacuous Innumerate Narcissistic Hacks; Or, the Beltway Media

Wednesday, July 23rd, 2008

Since I devoted far, far more words than Dick Morris deserves last week to dousing the Dickster’s fatuous column about a supposedly tied race between the presidential candidates, it would behoove me to point out that a trend towards McCain over the last couple of weeks is discernible at this point, as reflected in both FiveThirtyEight’s analysis and the rolling average of polls, both of which are converging on a 2 point Obama lead. By the same token, the notion that the race is tied remains spurious.1 For these reasons, as well as those adduced in my prior post, I would caution Obama supporters that today’s Ras poll showing Obama ahead in Florida, and yesterday’s Ras poll showing McCain ahead in Ohio, are considerably more likely to be statistical noise than accurate representations of the conditions of either state race. (Indeed, outlying surveys ought to dampen confidence in Ras’s accuracy as against other pollster — not that Ras is particularly bad (or good), but rather that the field of polling is so fraught with error that an individual survey is a nigh-on-worthless datum.) Not that that is going to deter partisans from trumpeting the results they like or ignoring the results they don’t.

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Fool Me T-t-tw….Can’t Get Fooled Again

Thursday, July 17th, 2008

Daniel Larison, who knows better, throws caution to the wind and decides to defend the credibility of a Dick Morris column. Has anyone ever made money on that bet? In the Morris column in question, Tricky Dick puts forward the thesis that the presidential race is in fact tied, and times it perfectly to coincide with the late week dip last week in Obama’s numbers in one prominent daily tracking poll, but not to coincide with those numbers predictably reverting to the mean of a modest but unequivocal and stable Obama lead. Having completed that sleight of hand — have you spotted how he knew which card was yours? he’s resting every word of his column on a single poll from which, at the time of his writing, drawing any strong conclusions was literally unintelligible, and which was contradicted by nearly simultaneous polls; and did I mention that the solitary result upon which the whole charade hangs happens to conform perfectly to P. Dicky’s pre-existing biases?; really now, I’ve seen birthday magicians whose tricks showed fewer seams and took longer to crack — the Dickster then projects his own biases onto the electorate as a whole, under the pseudo-objective guise of listing Obama’s flip-flops on salient issues in the campaign, thereby (since he presents neither evidence nor argument for their salience) just gruesomely begging the question a second time (the first time being his mendacious assertion of an Obama ex-lead). In other words, bullshit from top to bottom, an effort tha not only fails to add any value, but destroys existing value. In yet other words, exactly what one expects from a Dick Morris column.

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