110 Days and Counting . . .
(posted by FreeDem)
John McCain is down to just 110 days until Election Day; Barack Obama is on the cusp of being able to count down to his likely victory with just double digits. Before you know it, America will take a break from politics (or will they?) to turn their attentions to the Olympics. Thank you China. After a brief pause in August, the Democratic and Republican conventions will push the presidential election back into the spotlight. From Labor Day to Election Day, we Americans will witness a sprint to the finish as our two major Presidential candidates are joined in their nationwide campaign by two new Vice Presidential sidekicks. Holy Mackerel Batman!
Now what makes me so confident in saying that Obama faces a “likely victory?” The polls, for starters. They are not just favoring Barack Obama, but they are probably understanding his support given the expected surge in turnout. And don’t forget the small but growing segment of the population ignored by pollsters because they depend on cell phones. There’s the cash advantage for Obama, something that cannot be understated when Barack Obama is running the gauntlet nationwide with campaign offices numbering from six in Montana to twenty in Virginia. There’s also an energy gap; not a week goes by that I don’t see a story somewhere about John McCain struggling with evangelicals or some other aspect of the GOP base.
This looks pretty bad for John McCain. And let’s not even discuss the situation facing Congressional Republicans. McCain needs to bite the bullet and call in some expert advice. Lucky for him, Brad from The Crossed Pond is happy to give his advice for free. Because McCain needs to save every cent he can.
Brad’s short list starts with a one term pledge, something that I agree with. At this time of crisis (or many), John McCain needs to make it clear that he’s the one man that can clean up America, and after the crisis has passed he’s going to fade away like the good soldier he is. And if he can’t clean up America in four years, well he’s a failure and shouldn’t even be considered for another four. Call in the PR team to present that argument in more poetic terms, but that’s essentially what he needs to sum up with his one term pledge.
The second suggestion involves picking a VP before Obama, instead of the rumors we’ve heard that McCain is going to wait on his choice and annouce it after Obama as a way to blunt the media bump Obama will get after announcing his VP. Talk about being on the defensive. Either McCain announces his VP before the Olympics, or he’s going to concede to Barack Obama the advantage of having moved first. A President needs to look like a leader and act like a leader. Reactionary decisions are not going to cut it.
(Hello Ted, yes, Sarah Palin would make a great VP).
Now if McCain doesn’t do this, this is what we have to look forward to:
* A likely Obama “landslide” as he builds a solid lead in the polls, outside of the margin of error, that on Election Day expands due to turnout (energized Democrats, depressed Republicans) and cell phone owners suddenly appearing at the polls.
* A Democratic wave in the Congressional races, helped along by the Obama coattails, depressed Republican turnout, and a number of independent voters who are angry at Bush and the Republican Party, but favorable to John McCain (a solid 10% or so of the electorate).
* Depressed conservative/traditionalist evangelical turnout, plus a religious outreach campaign by the Obama campaign that will work to encourage liberal/modernist/progressive evangelicals to come out to the polls and boost Democratic performance among moderate evangelicals. The net result will be for Obama to look significantly better among evangelicals than Kerry. Most of this will be due to differences in turnout, but don’t expect the media to report that. They will act like Obama was successful in converting evangelicals to his campaign in big numbers.
* Progressives on the left (hello netroots!) heralding the dawn of a permanent Democratic majority based on superior mobilization of the growing Democratic base versus a dwindling Republican base.
* Conservatives who blame McCain’s defeat on his inability to mobilize the Republican base, including evangelicals.
* Partisans of both parties take away the lesson that the base matters, we’ll see both parties diverge as their candidates focus on the base going into 2010.
Not exactly an optimistic scenario for a libertarian . . .
July 18th, 2008 at 12:26 am
I think Obama will win, but I’m wary of talk about cell-phone users. People kept saying polls understated Ron Paul’s support because of that issue, but turnout ALWAYS showed that the phone-polls were right and internet-polls completely inaccurate. The youth vote will always disappoint (I think in 68 it was large but went for Nixon, however I can’t be sure).
July 18th, 2008 at 8:45 am
[...] that here, and FreedomDemocrat expands on the major premise in his Art of the Possible post “110 Days and Counting“. FreeDem leapfrogs me, and is already starting to imagine the lessons that both partys are [...]