That One-Term Pledge
(posted by FreeDem)
It’s that time of the campaign season where everyone settles down and speculations long and hard about VP speculation. Hopefully it will last long enough to get us to the Olympics, followed by the Democratic Convention, the Republican Convention, and the September-October sprint to the Election. How else will we be able to survive this mess? For now, I want to tie in some speculation at The Crossed Pond about Sarah Palin as VP with the idea (nearly a reality) that McCain could make a one-term pledge.
First, as much as John McCain has a need to excite conservatives, he also needs to pull back current Independents who affiliated with the GOP just a year or two ago. He needs someone who has a reputation, either nationally known or a narrative easily sold to the media, as a conservative but also not an incompetent ideology like George W. Bush. Governors Palin and Sanford arguably fit the bill. Governor Romney, not so much.
Second, the placement of a conservative on the ticket combined with a one term pledge maximizes conservative excitement for the ticket. It’s setting the VP up to run in four years. If there was someone out there with a big national following that McCain still needed to court, say if his primary fight against Romney or Huckabee had dragged on as long as the Obama-Clinton slugfest, the choice would be clear. But poll conservatives who they’ll want in four years to run for the presidency and I doubt any name stands out. This ups the importance of picking a VP that the conservative wing of the party can be a quick look over and provide their stamp of approval.
Third, the one term pledge has to be put out on the campaign in a believable context. It can’t be, “I’m old, I’ll probably die anyway before two terms.” The best I can come up with Iraq. Either John McCain will fix Iraq, and his job will be done, or he will fail and will honorably stand aside for someone else (A new generation?) to meet the challenge. This may also work to neutralize the bullshit line about being in Iraq for 100 years.
In the end, my money is still on Governor Pawlenty and no one-term pledge. But you never know . . .
June 29th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
Would you really put your money on the bland Pawlenty when all indications point to the much more exciting (and victory-causing)Palin?
June 29th, 2008 at 8:07 pm
Amen Ted.
If McCain chooses the typical Republican boring white guy then Obama is going to easily walk away with this election.
Sarah Palin is the only VP choice that has what it takes to steal Obama’s thunder and deliver victory. Not only is she qualified to be Vice President, she is more qualified than Nobama to be President. She is the real deal.
June 29th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Obama is going to walk away with it no matter what because the GOP has screwed itself royally and McCain has no ideas other than to continue relying on an adulating media that has dumped him for Obama.
June 30th, 2008 at 7:41 am
Ted, Dave, I never underestimate the strength of a candidate’s gut level appreciation of loyalty and friendship when picking a candidate–especially when I’m trying to figure out what McCain may do.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Here’s more on the McCain speculation: Romney McCain’s Top Veep Pick
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/30/romney-mccains-top-veep-p_n_109948.html
“Campaign insiders say McCain plans to name his running mate very shortly after Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) does, as part of what one campaign planner called a “bounce-mitigation strategy.”"
Romney aside, if McCain is seriously going to name is VP after Obama, as a reaction, he’s already given up trying to control the terms of the election.
July 2nd, 2008 at 5:58 am
It appears that it’s all down to Alaska Gov Sarah Palin or Mitt Romney, and team Romney fears Palin now has the best shot, so Romney camp is mounting a blogosphere-wide assault via Politico.
The tip-off that Politico is just a “promote Romney” piece is that it mentions EVERY NAME in the next two tiers of Veep prospects EXCEPT SARAH PALIN!!! — even names far more unlikely than Palin (since Romney camp knows Palin is the ONLY ONE who tops — I’ll say tops by far — Romney as McCain’s best pick).
Bottom line, Romney and Politico fear Palin most — as do the Dems and the MSM. (By the way, the Dems and MSM do not fear Romney the most — which says a lot.)
AOL, a main on-line pro-Obama/pro-Dem player, is now carrying the Politico piece promoting Romney buzz.
Clearly AOL wants McCain and the GOP to lose the general elction — hence they gladly promote Romney (no mention of Palin).
Also, CNN had Romney — kind of out of the blue — attacking Obama. Again, CNN, wanting McCain and the GOP to lose, gladly promotes Romney (to attempt to avert the Palin threat).
All the media frenzy which will surround the remarkable Palin “story” — essentially free to McCain — will be worth millions and millions of dollars of coverage and PR (more money than Romney would provide anyway).