Can Barr Be McCain’s Nader?
(posted by Daniel Koffler)
Terry “libertarian Democrat” Michael has an op-ed at the Politico making the case for Bob Barr’s potential appeal not only to ex-rEVOLutionaries, but also to a broad cross-section of conservatives disaffected with McCain and the GOP. What’s more, Barr could just possibly rehabilitate (or habilitate?) the Libertarian Party brand back (for the first time?) to respectability. Money quote:
To be sure, the bespectacled and mustachioed Barr may be too dour for prime time — though not necessarily boring, for those who recall his licking whipped cream off the chest of a woman at a fundraising event several years ago. But he speaks in complete thoughts and succinct sound bites, with occasional flashes of humor. There may be enough gravitas in him to rescue the Libertarian label from the potpourri of wackery that keeps its candidates from breaking the 1.1 percent of the presidential electorate that was its zenith of national vote-getting. That happened in 1980, when Republicans had a self-described libertarian candidate running for president, Ronald Reagan.
With a statist conservative as the GOP standard-bearer this year, Republicans who can’t hold their noses and vote Democratic may find Barr an appealing place to plant their protests against a party that has sold out to a Rove-ing band of “compassionate” big-government “conservatives,” more interested in the perks of power than in principle.
Here’s the thing about Barr’s prospects. As many strengths as he has as a candidate — as a former impeachment manager and current immigration restrictionist who assiduously avoids the problematic (let’s say) associations of past LP and paleocon candidates, his appeal to the GOP base that hates McCain is considerable — he’s unlikely to draw much support on his own. Partisan loyalty, especially in the GOP, is just too strong for the inertia to break on its own. But if the conventional wisdom begins to take hold that the election is already decided and Obama has won, Barr should start to see an uptick in support. (As the staggering enthusiasm gap makes clear, Democrats are vastly more likely to vote for Obama even if they believe the race is already decided than Republicans are.) But the terrible dilemma for McCain is of course that any increases in Barr’s support will exacerbate his deficit to Obama. But as his deficit to Obama increases, the greater the incentive for unenthusiastic Republicans to send a message to their party that they’re pissed, since voting for McCain looks more and more pointless. So Barr’s support increases more, McCain’s decreases further, Obama’s margin increases, and casting a vote for McCain looks like that much more of a waste, so Barr’s support increases still more, and…that’s how feedback spirals work.
There’s clearly a low upper bound of Barr’s support — he’s certainly not going to outpoll McCain anywhere, as much as I might hope otherwise. But by the same token, his ceiling is comfortably high enough to deliver Georgia and possible a few other states to Obama, which would make Obama more or less a lock to win. McCain’s unenviable task is to do everything in his power to prevent Obama or Barr from jimmying up the other’s support, Archimedes’ style. Once that process begins, McCain’s odds diminish precipitously.
Needless to say, it would be good for the LP, good for the Republican party, and good for the country if Bob Barr is the reason McCain loses.